September 2026 | Prepared for Al & Kim Miller
A clear read on where the Headwaters market stands today — supply, demand, pricing, and what it means for your position.
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
512-866-6165 x100 | team@foremanpropertygroup.com
The Headline
Headwaters has quietly tightened over the past twelve months. Fewer homes are coming to market, homes are selling roughly a month faster, and pricing has held steady.
Supply is down sharply
New listings fell from 138 to 79 year over year (-43%).
Homes are moving faster
Median days on market dropped from 101 to 74.
Values are stable
Median sales price of $680,116, up 1.5%.
The caution
Summer demand cooled noticeably — July and August pendings ran below the 10-year average.
Data reflects residential, non-pool homes within the Headwaters boundary. Trailing 12 months: Sep '25 – Aug '26 vs. Sep '24 – Aug '25.
Where the Market Sits Today
Months of Inventory
Balanced — leaning slightly toward sellers
Active Listings
Pending
Sold in August
Price Reductions
New Listing in August
At 3.5 months of inventory, Headwaters sits in balanced territory, leaning slightly toward sellers. Well-priced homes have leverage; overpriced homes do not.
Year-Over-Year Indicators
Supply: Active Listings
Inventory has run well below 2025 every month this year, and August slipped under the 10-year average. Buyers in Headwaters have fewer choices than they did a year ago.
New Inventory: New Listings
Only one new listing came to market in August — the lowest reading of the year. Sellers are holding, which keeps competition thin for any home that does list.
Demand: Pending Sales
Buyer activity peaked in spring and June, then softened through the summer. Demand is present, but it is selective — buyers are committing to the right homes, not every home.
Success Rate: Pending & Closed
Spring success rates were exceptional — 90% to 100%. July and August dropped to 57% and 43%, well below the long-term norm. Timing and pricing precision matter more heading into fall.
Appreciation: Ten-Year View
After the 2021–2022 run-up and a two-year correction, Headwaters values have found their floor. The trailing twelve months show +1.47% appreciation — a return to steady, defensible pricing. Values remain roughly 40% above 2020 levels.
The Cost of Time on Market
Two trends from recent Headwaters sales, measured against days on market:
Negotiations (Asking vs. Sales Price)
- Homes selling near launch closed at roughly 2% below asking.
- By 150+ days, that gap widened to nearly 4%.
Price Adjustments (Original vs. Asking Price)
- Homes that sold within the first month needed roughly 3% in reductions.
- Homes on market 150+ days averaged 7% to 8% in reductions.
What it means
On a $680,000 home, the difference between selling in 30 days and selling in 120 days is roughly 3 to 4 points — approximately $20,000 to $25,000 in net proceeds. The market rewards accurate pricing at launch.
What This Means for You
The Opportunity
- Supply is thin. A well-presented home faces less competition than at any point in the past year.
- Values have stabilized, giving buyers confidence and sellers a defensible number.
- Sellers who price correctly from day one are giving up far less — original-to-asking reductions improved from -6.5% to -3.4%.
The Caution
- Summer demand softened, and fall is seasonally slower in Headwaters.
- Buyers are discerning. Condition, presentation, and pricing precision will determine outcome.
Our Recommendation
- Price to the current $245–$254 per square foot range, adjusted for your home's specific condition, lot, and finish level.
- Launch with full presentation from day one — the first 30 days carry the most leverage.
- If timing is flexible, a late-winter/early-spring launch aligns with Headwaters' strongest demand window.
Next Steps
Private Walkthrough
We assess your home's condition, finishes, and positioning against current competition.
Tailored Pricing Analysis
A home-specific CMA built on the most comparable Headwaters sales.
Timing Strategy
We align your launch with the window that best protects your net proceeds.
We are glad to walk through any of this at your convenience.
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman
Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
512-866-6165 x100 | team@foremanpropertygroup.com
903 Highlands Blvd, Lakeway, TX 78738
Headwaters Market Briefing